Premierships aren't won in December

January 6, back to work. January 11, back to cricket. Clockwork. The later date sees the first full round of cricket in a new year, a new decade and hopefully with new fortunes for some teams. The limited overs competitions are coming to the pointy end in late January. However, it is March where teams really want to perform: two-day cricket finals. The holy grail for every grade cricketer. For some, it will bring ecstasy. For others, it will bring agony. While your ladder positioning before the Christmas break is important, the last four games for grades 3-6 and the last five games for first and second grade is where the men get sorted from the boys.

Of the past ten seasons, no premiership winning team has lost more than one two-day game post-Christmas. Even the losses tend to come at a tight margin. University was four wins from five games in 2014/15, with their only loss coming by a measly 27 runs.

The nature of our subtropical climate tends to leave many two-day games as a draw due to rain. Gold Coast (2009/10), University (2011/12), Toombul (2012/13), and Norths (2017/18) all had two draws in their run home to the flag. One of both Norths and Toombul’s draws were due to rain, while both University and Gold Coast’s draws were largely due to the weather. Despite these results, each team managed to win every other game in the back half of their schedule.  

The only team to lose one game and draw one game in their five game stretch was Wests (2016/17). However, their draw finished ever so tight. Chasing 338 for victory, they finished the days play at 9-331. Their loss was by only 40 runs, bowled out for 211 chasing 251. 

Valleys sensational victory in the 2013/14 season hails as the only side to win each game after Christmas. Needing to win at least four games to even make finals, the Valleys team went one better and finished five from five. That only ensured third place, meaning to bring home the Cam Battersby Cup, they had to win both their semi and the grand finals, rather than draw either game. Win they did, behind one of the greatest performances by an individual seen in late March. Luke Feldman took 7/34 off 13.1 overs in their semi-final to roll the Sunshine Coast for 92. Feldman then backed that up with 6/61 off 22.4 overs in the grand final, including a breathtaking spell which saw him take 3/0 and dismiss Nathan Reardon, Andy Michael, and Tom Tuffley. A middle of the pack side at the break, with history against them, then surged through some cricketing March Madness to win it all.

Momentum is everything while on the way to winning the big dance, and it takes a team to get there. The last ten sides to win the premiership have boasted excellent players, such as Usman Khawaja (Valleys 2013/14) and Marnus Labuschange (Redlands 2015/16). Although, everyone knows it is a team game, and the strongest sides on paper often do not win.  Likewise the side which finishes minor premiers, is no guarantee for the premiership.

Of the past 10 seasons, four sides have won after being minor premiers (Norths 2017/18, Uni 2014/15 & 2011/12, Toombul 2012/13). Five teams have won from second on the ladder (Uni 2018/19, Wests 2016/17, Redlands 2015/16, Wynnum 2010/11, Gold Coast 2009/10), and only one side has won from outside the top two, which was Valleys (2013/14), who finished third. The winning teams peak at the right time.

University of Queensland have finished the season minor premiers five times in the last ten seasons, converting that into two premierships, and winning from second in the 2018/19 season. However, of their five minor premierships, four were won consecutively between 2013/14 and 2016/17. The best team over four years only walked away in late March with the chocolates once. It is all about timing, and unfortunately for University, all three of Wests Redlands and Valleys timed their run to perfection.

As it currently stands, University are once again at the top of the table. But if history can teach anything, it proves how a two week break for Christmas and 4 games of cricket can end up feeling so very distant to the form shown at the start of the year.

Unfortunately, MyCricket doesn’t provide a form guide nor does Sportsbet give odds for any favourites to win. However, a good indication for frontrunners is winning games starting now, because this is where it counts. Premierships aren’t won in December.